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Research Papers: Gas Turbines: Structures and Dynamics

Impact of Manufacturing Variability on Combustor Liner Durability

[+] Author and Article Information
Sean Bradshaw

Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139sdbrad@alum.mit.edu

Ian Waitz

Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139iaw@mit.edu

J. Eng. Gas Turbines Power 131(3), 032503 (Jan 29, 2009) (12 pages) doi:10.1115/1.2980016 History: Received December 22, 2007; Revised May 21, 2008; Published January 29, 2009

This paper presents a probability-based systems-level approach for assessing the impact of manufacturing variability on combustor liner durability. Simplified models are used to link combustor life, liner temperature variability, and the effects of manufacturing variability. A probabilistic analysis is then applied to the simplified models to estimate the combustor life distribution. The typical combustor life was found to be approximately 20% less than the estimate life using deterministic methods for these combustors, and the probability that a randomly selected combustor will fail earlier than expected using deterministic methods is approximately 80%. The application of a sensitivity analysis to a surrogate model for the life identified the leading drivers of the minimum combustor life and the typical combustor life as the material property variability and the circumferential variability of turbulent mixing rates, respectively.

Copyright © 2009 by American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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References

Figures

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Figure 1

Combustor liner distress (courtesy of Delta Airlines)

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Figure 2

Heirarchical analysis for M combustors and J cup sections at sea-level, hot-day, take-off operating condition

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Figure 3

Random variables

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Figure 4

Probabilistic modeling framework for assessing the impact of manufacturing variability on combustor liner temperature and liner life

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Figure 5

Sketch of the mass-flows crossing the combustor liner

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Figure 6

Sketch of the combustor mass-flow circuit. ṁc is the total combustor mass-flow, Gfilm,i,j is the flow conductance for the film flow, Gdilution,i,j is the flow conductance for the dilution mass-flow, Gair,j is the conductance for the dome flow, and fc is the mass flow-pressure drop function

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Figure 7

Sketch of a lumped-parameter model for the combustor temperature field. The temperature field is separated into three driving temperatures and applied in a one-dimensional heat transfer analysis. These temperatures are the bulk gas temperature, the near-wall gas temperature, and the cooling film temperature.

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Figure 8

Sketch of a combustor liner wall

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Figure 9

Combustor A outlet bulk temperature variability

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Figure 10

Combustor B outlet bulk temperature variability

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Figure 11

Mean liner temperatures: Combustor A

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Figure 12

Liner temperature standard deviation: Combustor A

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Figure 13

Combustor A liner life distribution

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Figure 14

Combustor B liner life distribution

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Figure 15

Combustor B life CDF on a Weibull scale

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Figure 16

Combustor A: B1 life change for a 90% tolerance decrease

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Figure 17

Combustor A: B50 life change for a 90% tolerance decrease

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Figure 18

Combustor B: B1 life change for a 90% tolerance decrease

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Figure 19

Combustor B: B50 life change for a 90% tolerance decrease

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