Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) are pollutants emitted by combustion processes during power generation and transportation that are subject to increasingly stringent regulations due to their impact on human health and the environment. One NOx reduction technology being investigated for gas-turbine engines is exhaust-gas recirculation (EGR), either through external exhaust-gas recycling or staged combustion. In this study, the effects of different percentages of EGR on NOx production will be investigated for methane–air and propane–air flames at a selected adiabatic flame temperature of 1800 K. The variability and uncertainty of the results obtained by the gri-mech 3.0 (GRI), San-Diego 2005 (SD), and the CSE thermochemical mechanisms are assessed. It was found that key parameters associated with postflame NO emissions can vary up to 192% for peak CH values, 35% for thermal NO production rate, and 81% for flame speed, depending on the mechanism used for the simulation. A linear uncertainty analysis, including both kinetic and thermodynamic parameters, demonstrates that simulated postflame nitric oxide levels have uncertainties on the order of ±50–60%. The high variability of model predictions, and their relatively high associated uncertainties, motivates future experiments of NOx formation in exhaust-gas-diluted flames under engine-relevant conditions to improve and validate combustion and NOx design tools.