The accurate estimation of piping failure frequency is an important task to support the probabilistic risk assessment and risk-informed in-service inspection of nuclear power plants. Although probabilistic models have been reported in the literature to analyze the piping failure frequency, this paper proposes a stochastic point process model that incorporates both a time dependent trend and plant-specific (or cohort) effects on the failure rate. A likelihood based statistical method is proposed for estimating the model parameters. A case study is presented to analyze the Class 1 pipe failure data given in the OPDE Database.
Issue Section:
Nuclear Power
1.
Atwood
, C. L.
, LaChance
, J. L.
, Martz
, H. F.
, Anderson
, D. J.
, Englehardt
, M.
, Whitehead
, D.
, and Wheeler
, T.
, 2003, Handbook of Parameter Estimation For Probabilistic Risk Assessment
, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
, Washington, DC
, NUREG/CR-6823.2.
Fleming
, K. N.
, and Lydell
, B. O. Y.
, 2004, “Database Development and Uncertainty Treatment for Estimating Pipe Failure Rates and Rupture Frequencies
,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
, 86
, pp. 227
–246
. 0951-83203.
Nyman
, R.
, Hegedus
, D.
, Tomic
, B.
, and Lydell
, B.
, 1997, “Reliability of Piping System Components: Framework for Estimating Failure Parameters From Service Data
,” SKI Report No. 97:26.4.
Melchers
, R. E.
, 1999, Structural Reliability: Analysis and Prediction
, 2nd ed., Wiley
, New York
.5.
Gosselin
, S. R.
, Simonen
, F. A.
, Pilli
, S. P.
, and Lydell
, B.
, 2007, “Probabilities of Failure and Uncertainty Estimate Information For Passive Components—A Literature Review
,” U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, NUREG/CR-6936.6.
Fleming
, K. N.
, 2004, “Markov Models for Evaluating Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection Strategies for Nuclear Power Plant Piping Systems
,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
, 83
, pp. 27
–45
. 0951-83207.
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC)
, 1975, “Reactor Safety Study-An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants
,” WASH-1400, NUREG-75/014, Oct.8.
Thomas
, H. M.
, 1981, “Pipe and Vessel Failure Probability
,” Reliab. Eng.
, 2
, pp. 83
–124
.9.
Lydell
, B.
, 1999, “Failure rates in Barseback-1 Reactor Coolant Pressure Boundary Piping: An Application of a Piping Failure Database
,” SKI Report No. 98:30.10.
Beliczey
, S.
, and Schulz
, H.
, 1987, “The Probability of Leakage in Piping Systems of Pressurized Water Reactors on the Basis of Fracture Mechanics and Operating Experience
,” Nucl. Eng. Des.
, 102
, pp. 431
–438
. 0029-549311.
Beliczey
, S.
, and Schulz
, H.
, 1990, “Comments on Probabilities of Leaks and Breaks of Safety-Related Piping in PWR Plants
,” Int. J. Pressure Vessels Piping
0308-0161, 43
, pp. 219
–227
.12.
Choi
, S. Y.
, and Choi
, Y. H.
, 2005, “Evaluation of Nuclear Piping Failure Frequency in Korean Pressurized Water Reactors
,” Key Eng. Mater.
, 297–300
, pp. 1645
–1651
. 1013-982613.
Tregoning
, R.
, Abramson
, L.
, and Scott
, P.
, 2008, “Estimating Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) Frequencies Through the Elicitation Process
,” NUREG-1829, Vol. 1
, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC.14.
Sun
, A.
, Kee
, E.
, Yu
, W.
et al., 2005, “Application of Crow-AMSAA Analysis to Nuclear Power Plant Equipment Performance
,” International Conference on Nuclear Engineering ICONE-13
, Beijing, China, May 16–20.15.
Barringer
, H. P.
, 2006, “Use Crow-AMSAA Reliability Growth Plots to Forecast Future System Failures
,” Second Annual International Maintenance Excellence Conference
, Toronto, Nov. 1–3.16.
Choi
, S. Y.
, Yang
, J. E.
, and Choi
, Y. H.
, 2005, Piping Service Experience Related to Aging in OECD Pipe Failure Data Exchange (OPDE) Database Presentation.17.
Viglasky
, T.
, Blahoianu
, A.
, Riznic
, J.
, and Lydell
, B.
, 2006, “The OECD Pipe Failure Data Exchange Project—Validation of Canadian Data
,” International Conference on Nuclear Engineering ICONE-14
, Miami, FL, Jul. 17–20.18.
Simola
, K.
, Pulkkinen
, U.
, Talja
, H.
, Karjalainen-Roikonen
, P.
, and Saarenheimo
, A.
, 2004, “Comparison of Approaches for Estimating Pipe Rupture Frequencies for Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection
,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
, 84
, pp. 65
–74
. 0951-832019.
Rausand
, M.
, and Høyland
, A.
, 2004, System Reliability Theory: Models, Statistical Methods, and Applications
, 2nd ed., Wiley
, New York
.20.
Cook
, R. J.
, and Lawless
, J. F.
, 2007, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events
, Springer
, New York
.21.
Ascher
, H.
, and Feingold
, H.
, 1984, Repairable Systems Reliability: Modeling, Inference, Misconceptions and Their Causes
, Dekker
, Dordrecht
.Copyright © 2009
by American Society of Mechanical Engineers
You do not currently have access to this content.
