This paper presents an analytical procedure to predict the conditional probability of dynamic ductile axial crack arrest within one pipe joint length for pipeline materials operating at temperature above the brittle-to-ductile transition temperature. The analysis assumes there is an event to initiate a rupture with probability of one, so that the probability of a fracture event occurring is the probability of the rupture event (i.e., from mechanical damage) times the conditional probability of arrest within one pipe joint. The underlying deterministic model centers on the Battelle Two-Curve approach with a correction to predict the arrest length given the actual material toughness relative to the minimum arrest toughness. Past full-scale experimental results were used to develop statistical parameters that were used with the deterministic model in a Monte Carlo analysis. This model was calibrated for linepipe materials with a toughness less than 150J and a grade less than X65. Example cases are presented to demonstrate the variation of the probability of arrest with the pipeline operating conditions.

Issue Section:
Research Papers
Keywords:
Monte Carlo methods, ductile-brittle transition, brittle fracture, ductile fracture, probability, pipelines, natural gas technology, stress corrosion cracking
Topics:
Fracture (Materials), Fracture toughness, Probability, Pipelines, Pipe joints
1.
Eiber, R. J., Bubenik, T. A., and Maxey, W. A., 1993, “Fracture Control Technology for Natural Gas Pipelines,” NG-18 Report No. 208 to Line Pipe Research Supervisory Committee of the Pipeline Research Committee of the American Gas Association, Project PR-3-9113.
2.
Dawson, S. J., 1997, “Probabilistic Evaluation of the Safety Embodied in the EPRG Recommendations for Shear Fracture Arrest Toughness,” 11th Biennial PRCI-EPRG Joint Technical Meeting on Pipeline Research, Paper 27, Arlington Virginia, April 7–11, 1997.
3.
Maxey, W. A., Keifier, J. F., and Eiber, R. J., 1976, “Ductile Fracture Arrest in Gas Pipelines,” A.G.A. Catalogue Number L32176.
4.
Dugdale
,
D. B.
,
1960
, “
Yielding of Steel Sheets Containing Slits
,”
J. Mech. Phys. Solids
,
18
, p.
100
100
.
5.
Leis, B. N., 2000, “Predicting Fracture Arrest Based on a Relationship Between Charpy Vee-Notch Toughness and Dynamic Crack-Propagation Resistance,” Proceedings of 3rd International Pipeline Technology Conference, Pipeline Technology, Volume I, R. Denys (editor), Brugge, Belgium, May 21–24, 2000, Vol. 1, pp. 407–420.
6.
Wilkowski, G. M., Maxey, W. A., and Eiber, R. J., 1997, “Use of a Brittle Notch DWTT Specimen to Predict Fracture Characteristics of Line Pipe Steels,” ASME 1977 Energy Technology Conference, Houston, Texas, Paper 77-Pet-21.
7.
Maxey, W. A., 1974, “Fracture Propagation” Paper J, 5th Symposium on Line Pipe Research, American Gas Association Catalogue Number L30174.
8.
Rothwell, A. B., 2000, “The Application of the Battelle Short Formula for the Determination of Ductile Fracture Arrest Toughness in Gas Pipelines,” Volume 1, Proceedings of the Third International Pipeline Conference (IPC 2000), ASME IPC 2000, Alberta, Canada, pp. 233–238.
9.
ASME B31.8, 2003, “Gas Transmission and Distribution Piping Systems,” ASME Code for Pressure Piping, B31, An American National Standard.
10.
49 CFR Part 192, 2003, “Pipeline Safety: Pipeline Integrity Management in High Consequence Areas (Gas Transmission Pipelines); Proposed Rule,” Department of Transportation, Federal Register, Part II.
Copyright © 2005
 by ASME
You do not currently have access to this content.